[Infostock Daily= Reporter Park Hyo-sun] The heads of research centers in eight domestic securities firms predicted that the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19 or COVID-19) will lead to a volatile market for the first half of this year and will enter a full-scale recovery phase in the second half of this year.
The Korea Financial Investment Association held a wired meeting with Mirae Asset Daewoo, NH Investment & Securities, Korea Investment & Securities, Samsung Securities, KB Securities, Shinhan Financial Investment, Hana Financial Investment, and Meritz Securities Research Center heads last week. I made this opinion.
Yoon Hee-do, head of the Korea Investment & Securities Center, said, "Although corporate profits in the first half of this year are inevitably reduced due to corona 19, corporate profits will start to increase in the second half due to suppressed demand and the government's liquidity supply."
"The stock market will also see a moderate upward trend," he said.
Lee Chang-mok, head of NH Investment & Securities, said, "variability market is expected to continue for the time being due to deteriorating corporate earnings due to the aftermath of Corona 19."
and "After Corona 19, we expect a rise in liquidity supply in the recovery phase." He said.
Oh Hyun-seok, head of Samsung Securities Center, said, "In the first half of this year, volatility is expected to extend by confirming the fundamentals of Corona 19." In the second half of the year, cumulative policy effects and deferred consumption are expected to resume.
Shin Dong-joon and Yoo Seung-chang, head of KB Securities Center, said, "As the summer progresses, the spread of corona 19 slows down, and some consumption recovery and 5G-oriented investment cycle resumes."
"However, the downside of corporate profits and the possibility of re-proliferation of winter corona 19 are burdensome factors."
Yoon Chang-yong, head of Shinhan Financial Investment Center, said, "The calming of Corona 19 in developed countries such as the US and Europe will be a key variable in the future." When the spread of Corona 19 is eased, economic activities will be normalized early on based on global monetary easing and financial stimulus measures." He said.
Cho Yong-joon, head of Hana Financial Investment Center, said, "In the second quarter of this year, the KOSPI will show a W-shaped trend due to real economic indicators and corporate profits deterioration."
He said, "After the second half of the year, we will enter into a liquidity market based on base and policy effects, and we will enter a full-scale recovery phase."
Lee Kyung-soo, head of Meritz Securities Center, said, "The global economy has entered a recession phase, but it is likely to be the shortest and thickest recession in history."
"The recovery of the stock market will be quick due to the normalization of the real economy since the second half of the year due to the effects of large-scale economic stimulus in each country, and the possibility of a long-term recession in the economy and stock market is low," he said.
Seo Chul-soo, head of Mirae Asset Daewoo Center, said, "From a long-term perspective, the stock market will go through the process of restoring the current economic shock."and said "The direction of the stock market will also change depending on the strength of the restoration."
Lee Chang-hwa, head of the securities and futures division of the gold-financing company, said, "There is an unstable factor in the capital market due to the influence of Corona 19."
"However, we have confirmed a common opinion that the market will recover based on policy effects and consumption demand expansion from the second half of this year after the Corona 19 complaint as a result of the meeting of the head of the securities research center."
Reporter Park Hyo-sun hs1351@infostock.co.kr
